HorseRacingPark Breeders Cup Marathon Preview

The BC Marathon is one of those races that everyone loves to watch as it goes over a stamina sapping mile and a half and holds an almost gladiatorial status with trainers at HorseRacingPark. This years race has its usual mix of proven class, dogged old warriors and young pretenders so I will try and sort out the chances for you by looking at each individually.

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1  Boulevard And Nick

Not surprisingly trained and bred by Boulevard Stables this five year old falls into the bracket of a hopeful old battler rather than a live chance. A nine race winner we normally see him contesting claimers or low level allowances so it would be tough to see him bothering the leading lights in this race. He has always shown up well at home and on his gallops I could give him a slim chance but fourth in a six furlong claimer is not the sort of form that wins a grade three race so I will have to write him out of my selections today.

2  Spiritual Fusion

A three year old with only eight races under his belt trainer Eastern equine has certainly thrown him in the deep end today. All of his four wins have come on the turf which may put people off but the one thing this colt does well is stay forever and that will be a more important talent in this race. He built to a nice grade three win at SAR before heading to the Jamaica Handicap for his first true test but never got in that race and finished last behind Trench Bismo. Has he got a chance today? Well if his father Fusion has a say then it would be yes but I cannot see him troubling the top choices.

3  Bred For War

There are not many stables that have a BC runner in their first year but Four Winds Racing has achieved what most don’t by getting this three year old gelding into the race today. Bought at auction for only twenty four dollars he has had a nice break after his distant fourth on his unfavoured surface and came back last month to run a satisfying third in the Durham Cup Stakes. With only one win to his name I cannot see him being in at the finish today but I wish his trainer the best of luck for a big run.

HorseRacingPark Breeders Cup Marathon4  Hobbyhorse

There is no reason to think this five year old from Evesham Allstars should be good enough for a grade three but out of the non stakes winners in the field he has a few more pluses to his name than most. A winner over six furlongs last time at lowly SUF he has had success over longer distances twice winning over a mile and sixteenth so although most of his races have been over sprint distances he has shown enough stamina to put him in the race today. Some nice build up works must encourage his trainer but as with the first three runners here he will be realistically looking for place money.

5  Sussex

Yet another runner without the sort of form that can win today. Trained by Mwn Racing he has been beaten a long way in both of his graded stakes efforts and whilst the trainer will be excited to have a runner on the big day I cannot see him taking home any prize money with this one. Claimed for just ten dollars he won two TAM allowances over a mile and an eighth before being upped in grade and finding it all too much, again, like the first four reviewed runners, a big run would see him looking a minor places.

6  Mardelatranquilidad

The first of two Angelos Stable runners this is the first of the runners with a live chance on previous form. Claimed for a hundred dollars back in April he has been kept to turf ever since picking up six races and also claiming a grade three last time out. Although campaigned on the turf I don’t think this horse is strictly a turfer and he has managed five wins on the dirt to frank that point. His last win in the Knickerbocker Handicap showed his best form as he made all and stayed on resolutely for a three quarter length win, good enough to put him in this today. The thing I like about this one is his ability to win over a sprint distance as well as pound it out over a route distance and I reckon his tactical speed will be a real bonus today.

7  Willy Wonka

The second Angelos Stable runner and another who has a live chance. A winner of seven races this season and unbeaten on soft the trainer might be doing a rain dance on the morning of the race. His venture into grade three company this year ended in a last of four over a mile and a quarter at AP but he was close enough that day to suggest that he can be competitive at this level. There is little doubt this is a turf horse but he has shown enough on that surface to give him a chance in this marathon on dirt and did manage a nice second on this surface back in July. Can he win? Well if this was a turf race then I would put him right in there but I think he may be found out on this surface and put him just behind his stablemate.

8  Bozo Speed

If there is going to be a three year old winner of this years BC Marathon then this may be the one. Trained by Dynark Stables this colt by Litespede looked a nice horse when running on strongly to take fifth in the KYD but then came out and ran a disappointing race in the BEL a month later. It was a mystery as to why his two runs were so different but it may have been that he had to go faster early on to hold his inside position in the BEL race and he used up all the petrol too soon. His warm up race was in the Super Derby where he was a game nose winner over a mile and an eighth and he has worked well enough since to suggest he is holding his form well enough at this late stage of the season.

9  Sunday Diamond

This lightly raced four year old has all the right credentials for this race and trainer Mo Mentum Farm must be hopeful of a big run. A winner of three races this year with two of them being in grade threes his prep race came in the HAW Gold Cup where he was only beaten a length by the likes of Mordred and Rancho Ruler. He has the big plus of having won over this trip and on this surface and has also won at this track on the turf so it is difficult to find too many reasons to get him beat today.

10  Deep Purple

This Maverick Racing trained four year old falls into the hopeful division with his best runs coming in claiming and low level allowance wins. The one thing he has going for him is his undoubted stamina but I can only see him racing the also-rans for a minor purse at best.

11  Best Brew

This three year old trained by Bayou Star Farm has only managed one win this season but has a little black type form that give him a long odds chance of getting into the mix. The main problem for this home bred will be getting home over this distance as he has been a little weak in his finishes over a mile or less. You have to go back to last year for his best run when as a two year old he very nearly won the seven furlong HOL Prevue Stakes but I just cannot see that being good enough for this.

12  Shoulder Wheel

Last years winner and probably one of the strongest favourites of the series it is hard to see the Boulevard trained champion getting beaten. He was hugely impressive last year when coming with a stunning late run to take this race by an easy two lengths and there is no evidence that he is any slower this year. An easy winner of the Greenwood over this distance back in July his only defeats have come on turf most notably when second to Charming Behrens in his warm up race in September. I cannot see him losing today and fully expect to see him coming home with a clear advantage.

13  Atlantic Lady

There is no doubt that Calia Stable bypassed the Ladies Classic for an easier option here with their progressive three year old filly who has no fears about taking on the opposite sex. Her third in the FL Derby was a good performance and her second to Fiore in The Alabama was stunning so there is no doubt she has the class for this but I do not think an eight pound pull will be enough to out stay the favourite over this trip. On the home work front she is as good as anything though and it would be great to see this filly make history and win this race.

14  Materialist

Last but by no means least comes the Nakamura Stables runner who may just be the one to spring a surprise if there is to be one. Campaigned mostly on the turf his prep race was over the mile and a quarter on the dirt and saw him run a storming race to be third to Mordred in the HAW Gold Cup, he had Sunday diamond behind him that day. The trainer claimed this one from Jerry Garcia Racing back in May for one hundred dollars and this horse has since proved to be a real late bloomer. His attempt at this trip resulted in a turf win in the Stars And Stripes and I can certainly see him right there at the end looking for chinks in Shoulder Wheels armour.

Summary

Well there is a definite line between the class and the also-rans in this race and my top four is a fairly confident pick. I cant get past Shoulder Wheel for a back to back victory but I can see a good race developing with Materialist, Sunday Diamond and the filly Atlantic lady.

1  Shoulder Wheel

2  Materialist

3  Sunday Diamond

4  Atlantic Lady

Written by stu, republished with permission of and first published atSimRacing Form.

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