Expect Horus To Bounce Back In Hatton’s Grace

Two wins from two bets ensured a return to form for Buzz tipsters on Monday and continued profits for those that follow this column regularly. Both selections were comfortable winners, providing few moments of worry for their supporters. We have a full six race card on offer from Newturf Virtual Racecourse on Tuesday with four flat and two hurdles races to tackle.

Newturf RacecourseThe first race we want to look at is the G. Washington Derby (20:00 Newturf),  a Listed race for three year old flat horses. The safest thing to do in this one is to stick with Nash Lata, who already has solid form in the bag. He may not be the quickest but he seems to be ahead of his generation in terms of stamina at this stage and this could be enough to see him score here. At the lower end of the card, progressive types Valacirca d’Or and Lieutenant Mike might be the biggest dangers.

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In the Dancing Brave Derby (20:20 Newturf), we should again play it safe and opt for Wicked Soul. Her recent defeat of X-man and Melly Borealis on very similar ground looks solid. A repeat of that performance should be sufficient to see the mare notch another victory here. Don Mario possesses a great deal of speed but is often found wanting for stamina. The application of blinkers this time makes him a potential threat.

The Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (20:40 Newturf) is an interesting proposition for betting purposes. It has a competitive feel without being unfathomable. Four of the principal contenders ran in the Breeders’ Cup Qualifying round on ground the same as they will encounter here. Lermontov, Jemchipsa Mango, Kingston Aranza and Horus Pu Palais should be ranked in that order according to the times they achieved that day. Junior, Shaolin de Bellouet and Ma Ztrategie Mz must also come into consideration based on the speed they have shown in these conditions.

Lermontov should enjoy these conditions and while he clearly has plenty of ability, he does not seem quite as pacey as he did in early season races. It would be no surprise to see Ma Ztrategie Mz go off in front, as she is perhaps the sharpest of all. She has been in fantastic form lately and may need to be super-fit to make up for a stamina shortage. I suspect she is just passing peak fitness and without the blinkers on could well be outstayed today.

Horus Pu Palais has been mostly disappointing since winning the Breeders’ Cup, no more so than when finishing well down the field in the Full Moon Hurdle recently, also on yielding ground. On this occasion, Horus Pu Palais showed pace equal to that of Junior and more than that of Jemchipsa Mango and Shaolin de Bellouet. I believe the jockey got the race strategy completely wrong that day and left the Breeders’ Cup winner with an impossible amount to do, having got well behind early. Hopefully, the colt will be ridden more prominently today and avoid any trouble in running. With the blinkers on, it is worth taking a chance on him returning to the level of form that saw him victorious in the Breeders’ Cup Final.

 

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Nash Lata to win. (G. Washington Derby, 20:00 Newturf.)

Wicked Soul to win. (Dancing Brave Derby, 20:20 Newturf.)

Horus Pu Palais to win. (Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, 20:40 Newturf.)

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About Matt Alhaarth

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