The fine run of form continued on Wednesday as the Buzz best bet of the day, Paps Sea, stormed to victory in the Rakti Derby, returning a win dividend of £3.50 for a £1 unit stake. There is again a four race card on offer from Newturf virtual racecourse on Thursday evening, two flat and two hurdles races. The two races that interest us most from a betting point of view are the Falbrav Derby and the Long Walk Hurdle.
The Falbrav Derby is a G2 flat race over a mile for three year old horses and there are three that appear to stand out from the field. These three were all featured in the recent Royal Team Cup Qualifiers and it is this form which can help us unlock the riddle. Saocoa Salva is the most established of these while Sekola Ekola and Mika Fer are improving with every race and closing the gap. The RTC trials took place on soft ground and it will be even softer on Thursday. This is far from ideal for Saocoa Salva but he recorded the best time of the three in the trials and I fancy he can uphold that form despite the prevailing conditions.
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The Long Walk Hurdle is a fascinating race and includes reigning Breeders’ Cup winner, Horus Pu Palais amongst a plethora of high quality participants. Based on his form there, Horus Pu Palais is probably best suited to a firmer surface than he will encounter here but he is extremely talented and has previously handled the mud perfectly well. However, to small stakes, it might just pay to take him on with something a little more speculative.
One that will undoubtedly enjoy conditions underfoot is the Westfield Gardens owned filly, Miss Fruit. She is a pacey type and clearly has ability too. Her win in the BC Conso on ground far too quick puts her in with a shout here. The one I really like the look of though is Jemchipsa Mango. This filly showed she is no slouch either with a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup and her earlier form would seem to suggest she might like a little cut in the ground too. With the blinkers on, she has a good chance of making her abundant stamina count.
It would be wrong to overlook Shaolin de Bellouet in this race too. He has been in terrific form of late, notching a four-timer recently and clearly enjoys this soft ground too. I expect this colt to be involved in the finish and is one to consider for a place and along with duplicitypsg should be considered in forecast calculations.
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Saocoa Salva to win (Falbrav Derby)
Jemchipsa Mango and Shaolin de Bellouet each way (Long Walk Hurdle)
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