Two good quality, competitive looking fields from Newturf virtual racecourse to get stuck into on Thursday evening – the G1 Kalanisi Derby over 1600m on the flat and the Dawn Run Hurdle. We’re going to be concentrating on the Dawn Run Hurdle but those looking to bet in the Kalanisi could be well advised to watch for a possible market move for the Lakewood owned Fireball, which could suggest it carries stable confidence.
The Dawn Run Hurdle is an interesting race featuring a number of unexposed types. This type of race is likely to throw up some useful prospect that can be expected to go on to better things. At the top of the race card, Meflonne Portos and Arbelle already have some decent grade form in the bag, along with along with Newton Hill Stables’ Thunderwolf. None of these look unbeatable though and all are readily opposed by something with a more progressive profile. Two that fit the bill are M de Hur and Bowser des Murailles.
M de Hur hasn’t attempted anything like this grade in his short career to date but he has managed to achieve five wins from five in his completed starts, his one blip coming when falling on his third start. The opposition in these races may not amount to much but he has dispensed with them readily on ground ranging from good to heavy. He is clearly ready for a step up in class and is likely to go very close here.
The one I want to be on though is the Menne owned mare, Bowser des Murailles. The leading jumps owner has an army of potential candidates to choose from and knows what it takes to be competitive at this level, so the fact that this one has only had two prior runs in public does not give cause for concern. Her first effort came on heavy ground and the opposition was likely week but she could do no more than record her victory in the facile manner of a class horse. Her second run has a more solid look and came on a sound surface, suggesting she will handle today’s conditions too. She won a shade cosily then also and had one of today’s rivals, Arcla, well behind. I expect her to take this step up in class in her stride.
The potential fly in the ointment is the once-raced Newmori Ts. He hacked up in a small race and could be anything. His capable owner is another that knows what it takes though and it would be a surprise if this one was out of his depth. He is one to consider for forecasts.
Suggested bet: Bowser des Murailles to win. Try a combination exacta including M de Hur and Newmori Ts.